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Peak Oil goes on CNBC

I never thought this day would come. Over the last few years, I’ve become aware of Peak Oil but I always hoped it was a tinfoil hat theory.

It isn’t.

Puru Saxena, talks about the consequences of Peak Oil on a major financial network. And also throws in a bit about China.

Saxena: “We foresee a big energy crisis in the next two or three years.”, “This is not politics, this is geology.” , “The transition period is going to be very difficult.”

Our global situation is about to get very interesting. This graph is an approximation but probably closer to reality than anything else you’ll find.

Discussion

View Comments for “Peak Oil goes on CNBC”

  • Negconvex1
    Any discussion about oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand to give some idea of the magnitude of the supply issues we face:
    - China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year
    - Transition takes 30 years
    - No peak in global production

    In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD. If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years:
    - Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
    - Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80
    - Peak production 100 million BOPD
    - Post peak decline rate of 3-4%

    If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at: www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Itemid=86
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