Confronting Collapse by Mike Ruppert (Chelsea Green, 2009)

I first learned of Mike Ruppert through a chilling trailer for his then upcoming movie, Collapse. Ruppert has a long history as an investigative journalist that began when he broke away from the mainstream after his excellence in the LA police  led him to be actively recruited by the CIA for running cocaine through South-Central LA. Ruppert realized this wasn’t the world he’d pledged to serve and tried to break the story only to find that the systems he was working to support were quite different from how we perceive them in the mainstream. I went to the Vancouver International Film Centre with a few friends for a screening of Collapse only to have my tentative notions of civilizational instability confirmed in a tour de force of face melting facts. I quickly got a hold of Ruppert’s latest book, A Presidential Energy Policy, which had been re-printed as, Confronting Collapse to draw more attention to the work which had been largely ignored. Explaining bad news is not a route to popular success, as witnessed by the rapid end to careers of any American politician over the last 20 years that tried to curb deficits by cutting spending or raising taxes.

Confronting Collapse is a far better introduction to the topic of Collapse for the lay person than the corresponding movie is. And I say that because it is possibly too easy to write off Ruppert as a crank and a lunatic on-screen when he’s talking about governments breaking down and a global population that might face a huge die-off. This is so far outside the mainstream narrative that most people who aren’t receptive to it will completely block it out. It is much harder to ignore the case Ruppert makes for industrial civilization’s collapse when it is nicely footnoted and indexed. Ruppert’s writing style is absolutely clear and accessible to someone that isn’t a technically adept reader but might come across as “arrogant” for someone unwilling to look at the evidence. Modern economists counter the claims of the Peak Oil/Collapse theorists by saying that market corrections will solve the problem, Ruppert clearly explains that the only market corrections available will be in the form of tremendous suffering and loss of human life.

In the book, Dr. Colin Campell sets the stage by discussing the short time humanity has had access to energy dense petroleum reserves (only about 150 years). Ruppert uses the first chapter to make the case on why the US Federal government might keep the severity of the energy supply situation confidential and why we might question the status quo on this issue, “if we were lied to about mortgages, 401(k)s, stock portfolios, hedge funds, derivatives, insider trading… the invasion of Iraq and torture… why do so many accept on faith everything we have been sold about energy?”

Ruppert is clear that he views the entire American political and economic system as broken and corrupt and subservient to corporate/financial interests. This is something that neither Barack Obama or John McCain were willing to confront in their naive energy policies and political solutions. Thus the reason no real leadership exists and America/The World might be headed off a very steep and disturbing cliff in the near future. This assumption might lose some readers right away but if you read further, you can see why Ruppert has reached these conclusions.

The case for collapse is made by Ruppert in his connection between the financial system and oil supplies/energy flows.  Growth of this economic system is impossible because recent oil reserve discoveries (they are all in hard to reach places like 6 miles under the ocean) do little more than confirm the fact that extraction rates of oil supplies will continue to rapidly decline, leading to a quick and painful dissolution of the mechanisms of modern society. If our infrastructure was able to handle such a decentralization, America would be in better shape, but Ruppert destroys that myth by dissecting and reporting  facts regarding global oil and gas infrastructure ($22 trillion in investment needed by 2030 to support the global energy-supply infrastructure), the electric distribution grid (coal supplies need oil for extraction), roads and bridges (a $1.6 trillion investment needed to avoid bridges collapsing), an over-reliance of commuting (asphalt prices and their tie to oil, impact of driving on economic growth in America) and the alternative energy infrastructure (which does not and will not exist).

For Ruppert, Iraq is confirmation that the US government knows what is about to happen to global energy supplies, if we are fighting over the scraps of the remaining global oil fields that isn’t good news. Since Obama hasn’t even begun to withdraw from Iraq or Afghanistan supports this notion. By the time Mike Ruppert ties together the dependence of our food system on cheap petroleum (10 calories of petroleum for every calorie of food, not counting for transport), the case he’s making for a major reshuffling of society is clear… but you are only halfway through the book.

He continues by detailing how we should evaluate alternative energy solutions, that we should focus on how much energy we get out based on how much energy we put in and then completes this point by discussing why none of the available alternatives (solar, wind, tidal, etc…; all ranging from 3 barrels of oil energy equivalent for every one barrel of oil equivalent that we put in or 3:1 net energy) can match the net energy of oil (200:1 in 1900 and now 50:1 in 2009). But there is an alternative that works: localization. When everything  requires tremendous energy inputs to bring it to you from far away, the most straightforward response is to make something and use it locally. This is where electricity sources like solar PV panels and mini-wind turbines can help.

Ruppert closes out the book with a realistic assessment of money and how it will respond to oil depletion, our system of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking has only existed since the late 1960s because of rapid oil extraction. This is where Ruppert’s book shines as he lays out a 25 point plan for creating stability in the face of oil extraction rate depletion. Hi solutions would build local resilience and quickly reduce oil consumption if implemented on a Federal or even local level. Sadly, none of these solutions are being considered at a national level in the US because the paradigm is still so focused on solutions for growth that it ignores solutions for managed contraction. Only one of these 25 approaches is being considered by California, and that’s the legalization of marijuana which could lead to pratical hemp production offsetting the need for many petroleum intensive fabrics and materials.

If Ruppert makes one mistake, it is that he appears to assume the rest of the world will follow the United States down the drain, while collapse for the US appears inevitable, the social fabric in other nations may be able to withstand the challenges of the oil age much better.

So in summary, Ruppert’s claim is that the monetary system, supported by ever expanding supplies in oil will collapse bringing down the system of globalization and the failing infrastructure and weak communities of the US will lead to a long period of civil unrest.

Regardless of your preconceived notions, Ruppert’s book is filled with clear concise charts, graphs, news articles and summaries which outline the magnitude of our current global predicament. I’m not completely sold on the concept of collapse, I think societies tend to seek out equilibrium in the face of dire circumstances. However, complex civilizations have fallen apart when energy sources were no longer accessible (see Ancient Rome and peak wood supplies). What is inevitable is that business as usual cannot and will not continue in the face of physical constraints imposed by reality.  It is truly disappointing to see the citizens of North America, and specifically the leadership of its nations, completely unwilling to acknowledge the magnitude of these problems.

Mike Ruppert and his team blog regularly, take some time to check out their work. The fact that its based on regularly available headlines might be enough to convince you that the global status quo of the last 50 years is changing rapidly.